Calendar Arbitrage
FPL Blank & Double Gameweek Predictor
Blanks and doubles are not acts of God. They are the mechanical result of cup ties landing on a Premier League weekend, which means they can be forecast months before the official announcement. We track every club's FA Cup and Carabao Cup progress, price each remaining tie, and work out which league fixtures are at risk of moving and where the resulting doubles are likely to land. By the time the yellow badge appears in the app, the edge is gone. This page is for acting earlier.
Clash weekends
3
GW30 · GW33 · GW37
Fixtures at risk
29
0 confirmed / postponed
Clubs with double odds
19 ≥5%
Most likely double
MCI 26%
Expected fixtures per gameweek
20 clubs · GW29-38| Club Peak DGW % | Total xF up / down | GW29 | ▲GW30HIGH SWING | GW31 | GW32 | ▲GW33HIGH SWING | GW34HIGH SWING | GW35HIGH SWING | GW36HIGH SWING | ▲GW37HIGH SWING | GW38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRE15% | 10.0▲0.6 / ▼0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| CHE24% | 10.0▲1.0 / ▼1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| HUL8% | 10.0▲0.3 / ▼0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| LEE8% | 10.0▲0.3 / ▼0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| ARS8% | 10.0▲0.3 / ▼0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| AVL13% | 10.0▲0.5 / ▼0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| COV11% | 10.0▲0.4 / ▼0.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| CRY9% | 10.0▲0.3 / ▼0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| IPS10% | 10.0▲0.3 / ▼0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| MCI26% | 10.0▲1.1 / ▼1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| NEW12% | 10.0▲0.5 / ▼0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| NFO10% | 10.0▲0.4 / ▼0.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| SUN8% | 10.0▲0.3 / ▼0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| BHA12% | 10.0▲0.5 / ▼0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| FUL14% | 10.0▲0.5 / ▼0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| BOU12% | 10.0▲0.5 / ▼0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| EVE13% | 10.0▲0.5 / ▼0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| LIV9% | 10.0▲0.4 / ▼0.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| MUN17% | 10.0▲0.7 / ▼0.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| TOT3% | 10.0▲0.1 / ▼0.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Select a cell for its fixture context and probability breakdown. Total xF and net swing use only the visible planning range.
How the forecast works
1. Find the clash weekends
Cup rounds scheduled on a Premier League weekend force league games to move. This season: Carabao Cup Final (21 Mar, GW30); FA Cup Semi-final (24 Apr, GW33); FA Cup Final (22 May, GW37).
2. Price every club's cup run
Played ties are settled 1/0. Drawn ties use Club Elo win odds with home advantage. Undrawn rounds use each club's expected win rate against the surviving field, so a strong club is far more likely to still be in the cup than a weak one.
3. Move the fixture, not the team
A league game moves if either club is still in the cup. A club that is out of everything still blanks if its opponent is playing a semi-final, and then inherits the same rearranged double. Those cases are flagged as opponent-driven.
4. Estimate the landing gameweek
Rearranged games are spread across the free gameweeks that follow, with a mild tilt toward later slots (the classic GW34-37 doubles). Clashes in the last two gameweeks are assumed to be replayed midweek within the same gameweek, so no blank or double.
Everything left of the official announcement is probabilistic; everything right of it is priced in. These figures are estimates, not fixture confirmations: once the Premier League publishes a postponement or a new date, the official schedule takes over automatically. European fixtures are not yet modelled. Last computed 29 Sept, 04:00.