Overview
Our proprietary prediction model has identified the most promising budget-friendly assets with the highest points per million potential over the next six gameweeks. These players—all priced at £7.5m or below—have been analyzed based on expected performance, fixture difficulty, and value metrics to uncover the true bargains that could make the difference in your FPL team.
Why Points Per Million Wins Leagues
In FPL, squad optimization isn't just about collecting the highest scorers—it's about maximizing the return on every pound spent. Points Per Million (PPM) measures the efficiency of your investments by dividing a player's projected points over a period by their price. This metric reveals which assets deliver the most value relative to cost, allowing managers to build more balanced squads while still capturing high point totals.
Our model projects points across the next six gameweeks (GW5-10), giving a broader view beyond just the upcoming fixture. This approach helps identify players with sustained value rather than one-week wonders. The highest PPM players often come from unexpected sources—defenders with attacking potential, budget midfielders on set pieces, or forwards in favorable fixture runs.
The beauty of focusing on PPM is that it enables intelligent compromises. While premium assets like Haaland and Salah remain essential for their captaincy potential, surrounding them with high PPM players maximizes your overall squad output. Many top-100k managers distinguish themselves by identifying these efficiency plays before their ownership explodes.
Budget Defenders & Goalkeepers
Crystal Palace's Marc Guéhi tops our value rankings with an exceptional 4.89 points per million—the highest in our entire data set. At just £6.0m, Guéhi is projected to return 29.3 points over the next six gameweeks, starting with a promising 6.0-point prediction against Sunderland at home in GW5. Palace's defensive metrics have been impressive, and Guéhi's set-piece threat adds to his appeal.
Newcastle's defensive duo of Malick Thiaw (£5.0m) and Lewis Hall (£5.2m) rank second and third in our PPM rankings at 4.51 and 3.82 respectively. Both benefit from Newcastle's favorable upcoming schedule, starting with Hull at home in GW5. Thiaw looks particularly good value with 22.6 projected points across the six-gameweek window, while Hall's attacking potential from wing-back provides a solid floor.
Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) continues to show promise with 21.8 projected points (3.75 PPM). Despite a tougher GW5 fixture away at Brighton, his projected returns improve from GW6 onward with favorable home matches against Leeds and Hull within the analysis period.
Chelsea's Maxence Lacroix (£6.0m) ranks eighth in our PPM list with 3.41 points per million and 20.4 projected points. The Chelsea defense has been strengthening, and Lacroix's aerial presence offers attacking threat to complement clean sheet potential.
In goal, Manchester United's Maarten Lammens (£4.9m) offers tremendous value with 3.35 PPM, making him the ninth-best value player in our analysis. Manchester City's Gianluigi Donnarumma (£5.5m) and Arsenal's David Raya (£6.0m) also feature in our rankings, with PPM values of 3.28 and 3.27 respectively.
Josko Gvardiol (£5.6m) provides an attacking option from Manchester City's defense with 18.3 projected points (3.27 PPM), though be aware of a difficult GW6 fixture against Liverpool. Crystal Palace's Tyler Richards (£5.0m) rounds out our defensive options at 3.09 PPM, though his projection of 15.5 points over six gameweeks is the lowest of our highlighted players.
GW5–GW10 Fixture Difficulty Snapshot
GW5 snapshotDifficulty scores from our fixture model, frozen at publish time.
| Team | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | H HUL | A COV | H AVL | A CRY | H EVE | A FUL |
| Crystal Palace | A LEE | H NFO | A BHA | H NEW | A TOT | H LIV |
| Arsenal | A BHA | H LEE | A NFO | H EVE | A LIV | H HUL |
| Chelsea | A BRE | H BOU | A EVE | H TOT | H MUN | A SUN |
Midfield Bargains
Kevin Schade emerges as our highest-rated midfield option at just £6.0m. The Brentford attacker ranks fifth overall in our value analysis with 3.65 PPM and 21.9 projected points across GW5-10. While his next fixture against Chelsea (H) looks challenging with an FDR of 4, our model still projects a respectable 3.6 points, suggesting he has output potential regardless of opposition.
Sunderland's Etienne Le Fée (£5.8m) represents excellent value at 3.60 PPM despite a difficult GW5 fixture away at Manchester City. His subsequent fixtures improve significantly, with home matches against Brighton and Leeds in GW6 and GW8 respectively. At his price point, he offers a strong enabler option that allows funds to be distributed elsewhere.
Newcastle's Harvey Barnes (£6.0m) continues to show promise with 3.53 PPM and a healthy 21.2 projected points. His immediate fixture against Hull in GW5 looks particularly appealing with a projected 4.1 points. Barnes has demonstrated his attacking quality throughout his Premier League career and benefits from Newcastle's relatively balanced fixture run.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£6.5m) rounds out our midfield selections at 3.09 PPM. The Everton midfielder has 20.1 projected points across the six-gameweek window, with particularly favorable GW5 (Ipswich at home) and GW6 (Hull away) fixtures where he's projected 3.9 and 3.6 points respectively. His underlying numbers suggest consistent involvement in Everton's attacking phases.
Forward Value
The budget forward category is typically the thinnest for value options, but our model has identified one standout performer: Everton's Lewis Barry. Priced at just £5.6m, Barry ranks tenth in our overall PPM rankings with 3.33 points per million and 18.7 projected points across GW5-10.
Barry's immediate schedule looks promising with Ipswich at home (FDR2) in GW5 followed by Hull away (FDR2) in GW6. Our model projects 3.7 and 3.5 points for these fixtures respectively. While his returns dip for the tougher fixtures against Chelsea, Arsenal, and Newcastle in GW7-9, he rebounds in GW10 with Coventry at home projected at 3.3 points.
As a budget enabler in the forward position, Barry represents a calculated risk that could free up significant funds for premium assets elsewhere. His inclusion in our value rankings suggests he outperforms similarly priced forwards over the medium term, making him worthy of consideration in draft teams or as a budget third striker.
The Top Five Deep Dive
Let's examine in greater detail the five players our model identifies as offering the absolute best points per million value over the GW5-10 period:
Marc Guéhi (£6.0m, Crystal Palace) stands head and shoulders above the competition with 4.89 PPM. The Palace center-back offers an exceptional combination of clean sheet potential and goal threat. With 29.3 projected points across six gameweeks, he outpaces even premium defenders in raw point projections while costing significantly less. His GW5 fixture against Sunderland (H) looks particularly appetizing with a 6.0-point projection, but even his toughest fixtures (Liverpool away, GW6) still return value with 3.3 projected points. Palace's defensive solidity combined with Guéhi's set-piece prominence makes him our model's standout budget pick.
Malick Thiaw (£5.0m, Newcastle) represents tremendous value at 4.51 PPM with 22.6 projected points. At just £5.0m, he's the most affordable player in our top five. Newcastle's favorable run starting with Hull at home in GW5 (4.5 projected points) sets him up nicely, and the Magpies' defensive improvements under Eddie Howe give Thiaw a solid floor. While his teammate Lewis Hall (£5.2m) also features highly with 3.82 PPM, Thiaw's lower price point and slightly higher projected points give him the edge.
Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m, Arsenal) has quickly established himself in Arsenal's backline and ranks fourth with 3.75 PPM and 21.8 projected points. While his GW5 fixture away at Brighton (3.0 projected points) is challenging, he benefits from favorable home fixtures against Leeds (GW6) and Hull (GW10) where our model projects 4.5 points each. Arsenal's defensive stability provides a reliable floor, while Calafiori's progressive passing and occasional forays forward add attacking potential.
Kevin Schade (£6.0m, Brentford) is our highest-ranked attacking player with 3.65 PPM and 21.9 projected points. Despite facing Chelsea at home in GW5 and tough fixtures against Aston Villa and Liverpool in GW6-7, our model consistently projects solid returns in the 3.5-3.6 point range. His GW8 fixture against Hull away looks particularly promising with 4.1 projected points. Schade's combination of goal threat and assist potential makes him an intriguing differential at just 3.4% ownership.
| Player | Pos | Price | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | Total xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guéhi MCI | DEF | £6.0m | 6.0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 24.6 |
| Thiaw NEW | DEF | £5.0m | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 19.4 |
| Schade BRE | MID | £6.0m | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 18.6 |
| Calafiori ARS | DEF | £5.8m | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 17.3 |
| Hall NEW | DEF | £5.2m | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 17.0 |
Action Plan
When applying these findings to your FPL strategy, consider the following approach:
The data clearly shows that tremendous value exists in the £5.0m-£6.5m price bracket across all positions. By strategically targeting these high PPM players, you can construct a more efficient squad capable of climbing the ranks while maintaining key premium assets for captaincy. Remember that value players often see rapid price rises once the wider FPL community catches on—acting early on these model-backed selections could pay significant dividends.
- Target defensive value first: Our top four PPM picks are all defenders, suggesting this is where the greatest value currently lies. Marc Guéhi at £6.0m stands out as potentially season-defining value.
- Consider Newcastle's defensive double-up: With both Thiaw and Hall ranking in the top three for PPM, doubling on Newcastle's defense could be a shrewd move ahead of their favorable fixture run.
- Balance your midfield: While premium midfielders remain essential, supplementing them with value picks like Schade (£6.0m) or Barnes (£6.0m) allows for a more balanced squad construction.
- Plan for fixture swings: Several value picks have fixture difficulty spikes in GW6-8. Consider how these align with your transfer plans and bench strength.
- Use Barry as an enabler: At £5.6m, Lewis Barry represents the best forward value in our model, potentially allowing an extra premium asset elsewhere in your squad.
FPLScout
Guest Analyst
Written by the FPL King editorial network - tactical FPL analysis, captaincy edges, transfer strategy and fixture-led planning.
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