Overview
Finding the best value picks in Fantasy Premier League can make all the difference between a good season and a great one. Our model has identified 15 standout budget options (all priced £7.5m or less) who deliver exceptional points per million, giving you the edge when building your squad for GW6 and beyond.
Why Points Per Million Wins Leagues
While premium assets offer the highest raw points, maximising value across your entire squad is the true path to FPL success. Points per million (PPM) measures predicted points over a period (in this case GW6-GW11) divided by price, revealing which players offer the best pound-for-pound return on investment.
Our model only considers regular starters (averaging 60+ minutes per game) who are projected to score more than 3 points in GW6, ensuring these gems aren't just theoretical value traps. We've also introduced "elite gap" in our analysis, showing the difference between top-1000 manager ownership and overall ownership, highlighting which budget options the most successful managers are already targeting.
By focusing on underlying metrics like NPxG+xA (non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists), DefCon (defensive contributions per 90), consistency floor (P20 - the 20th percentile score) and coefficient of variation (CV - lower means steadier returns), we can identify truly sustainable value rather than flash-in-the-pan performers.
Budget Defenders & Goalkeepers
Thomas (Coventry, £4.0m) tops our overall points per million rankings with an exceptional 5.26 PPM and 21.0 predicted points over the next six gameweeks. Beyond his attractive price point, Thomas offers impressive consistency with a P20 floor of 2.4 points and CV of 0.69. His defensive contributions are outstanding at 10.7 per 90, placing him among the elite budget defenders for bonus potential. The elite gap of +4.8 percentage points shows top managers are already investing ahead of a favourable fixture run starting with Newcastle at home.
Guéhi (Man City, £6.0m) ranks second in our PPM model with a projected 30.1 points over the next six gameweeks. Despite a challenging fixture against Liverpool in GW6, he offers exceptional consistency with a P20 floor of 3.6 points (95th percentile among budget options) and the lowest CV among our defensive gems at 0.47. At 18.2% ownership but only 2.6% among elite managers, Guéhi represents a rare "reverse differential" where the masses may have spotted value that top managers are overlooking.
Hall (Newcastle, £5.3m) combines attacking threat with defensive solidity ahead of Newcastle's favourable fixture run. With 23.6 projected points over the next six gameweeks and an impressive DefCon rate of 9.2 per 90, Hall provides both clean sheet potential and attacking returns. His 2.4-point P20 floor places him in the 86th percentile for consistency among budget options, though his -2.4pt elite gap suggests the top managers may be cautious about his selection.
De Cuyper (Brighton, £5.0m) offers exceptional current form with 7.60 points per game this season. His elite gap of +37.1pt is one of the highest in our dataset, confirming top managers' conviction. With 20.4 projected points over the next six and a P20 floor of 3.2 points (93rd percentile), he combines consistency with attacking threat (0.55 NPxG+xA per 90). Brighton's fixtures turn more challenging before improving in GW11, which explains his slightly lower PPM ranking.
Among the budget-friendly options, Davis (Ipswich, £4.0m) and Ajayi (Hull City, £4.2m) offer attractive price points and decent returns. Davis has the support of elite managers with a +4.9pt gap and offers surprising attacking threat with 0.48 NPxG+xA per 90. Ajayi has scored well this season (5.40 pts/game) but with a high CV of 0.88 and negative elite gap of -9.8pt, he represents more risk despite his appealing price.
Calafiori (Arsenal, £5.8m) rounds out our defensive gems with the highest elite backing of any defender in our dataset (87.4% among top-1000 managers). His fixture run starts favourably with Leeds at home in GW6, projecting 5.0 points. Though his DefCon rate of 3.9/90 isn't exceptional, his attacking threat (0.41 NPxG+xA per 90) compensates, explaining his popularity among elite managers.
GW6–GW11 Fixture Difficulty Snapshot
GW6 snapshotDifficulty scores from our fixture model, frozen at publish time.
| Team | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | H NEW | A TOT | H FUL | H SUN | A EVE | H CRY |
| Newcastle | A COV | H AVL | A CRY | H EVE | A FUL | H ARS |
| Brighton | A SUN | H CRY | A LIV | A MCI | H BRE | A HUL |
| Arsenal | H LEE | A NFO | H EVE | A LIV | H HUL | A NEW |
| Hull City | H EVE | A FUL | H BRE | H IPS | A ARS | H BHA |
| Ipswich Town | H FUL | A MCI | H NFO | A HUL | H BOU | A TOT |
Midfield Bargains
Barnes (Newcastle, £6.1m) tops our midfield value rankings with 27.4 projected points over GW6-GW11 and an attractive 4.49 PPM. He's averaging 5.60 points per game this season while remaining surprisingly under-owned at just 5.6% overall. His fixture run begins with a favourable trip to Coventry, where our model projects 4.7 points. While his P20 floor of 2.0 points and 40% blank rate suggest some volatility, his ceiling is impressive with a P90 of 10.8 points.
Groß (Brighton, £5.8m) has been this season's standout budget midfielder with an incredible 9.40 points per game. His elite gap of +42.0pt is the highest in our dataset, showing top managers have identified his value well ahead of the crowd. Though his upcoming fixtures are challenging (including trips to Man City and Liverpool), our model still projects 25.9 points over the next six gameweeks. His underlying numbers are exceptional, with 0.66 NPxG+xA per 90 from 2.0 shots per 90, demonstrating sustainable attacking threat.
Stach (Leeds, £6.0m) emerges as a fascinating differential with just 2.5% overall ownership and 1.0% among elite managers. Despite a difficult run beginning with Arsenal away, our model projects 23.3 points over the next six gameweeks. His consistency metrics are impressive with a P20 floor of 2.8 points (90th percentile) and a manageable CV of 0.73. At 5.40 points per game this season, he's significantly outperforming his price tag while flying under the radar.
Schade (Brentford, £6.2m) rounds out our midfield selections with 23.9 projected points and positive elite backing (+8.9pt gap). His current season form is excellent at 7.80 points per game, placing him well above the value line on our charts. With 0.36 NPxG+xA per 90 from 2.6 shots per 90, his attacking threat is sustainable, while his consistency metrics (P20 floor of 2.8, CV of 0.61) suggest reliability despite some tough fixtures ahead.
Forward Value
Barry (Everton, £5.6m) leads our forward value picks with 23.4 projected points over GW6-GW11 and a strong 4.17 PPM. Despite averaging a modest 4.00 points per game so far, his underlying numbers are promising with 0.88 NPxG+xA per 90 from an impressive 3.6 shots per 90. With favourable fixtures beginning with Hull away in GW6, Barry offers both value and modest elite backing (+1.1pt gap), suggesting top managers see his potential.
Gonzalo (Fulham, £6.0m) offers excellent projected points (24.9 over six gameweeks) at a reasonable price point. His 5.1-point projection for GW6 against Ipswich is the highest single-gameweek prediction among our gems. While his season returns so far have been modest (2.80 points per game), his underlying numbers suggest positive regression is due, with 0.65 NPxG+xA per 90 from 3.2 shots per 90. Elite managers aren't convinced yet, with a -1.9pt gap showing caution.
Wissa (Newcastle, £6.2m) completes our forward options with 24.4 projected points over the next six gameweeks. His 3.94 PPM places him twelfth overall in our value rankings. Newcastle's favourable fixture run beginning with Coventry away offers potential, though his inconsistency metrics (P20 floor of just 0.8 points, placing him in only the 12th percentile, and CV of 0.94) indicate significant risk. The negative elite gap of -6.0pt suggests top managers are steering clear despite the projections.
The Top Five Deep Dive
Thomas (Coventry, £4.0m) represents the ultimate budget enabler who also delivers points. His 21.0 projected points over six gameweeks at just £4.0m creates unmatched value at 5.26 PPM. What separates Thomas from other budget defenders is his consistency, with a P20 floor of 2.4 points placing him in the 86th percentile. Elite managers have recognised his potential with a +4.8pt ownership gap, but at just 13.4% ownership among the top-1000, there's still differential value here. His DefCon of 10.7 per 90 highlights his bonus point potential, explaining why he's averaging 0.62 bonus points per 90 minutes.
Guéhi (Man City, £6.0m) offers the highest projected points total of any gem in our analysis at 30.1 over six gameweeks. His consistency metrics are exceptional, with a P20 floor of 3.6 points (95th percentile) and CV of just 0.47. Despite facing Liverpool away in GW6, our model still projects 4.0 points, showing his fixture-proof nature. What's fascinating is the -15.6pt elite gap, suggesting top managers may be overlooking his potential. With Ipswich and Fulham at home in the next six, and 0.80 bonus points per 90 from 22.8 BPS per 90, he combines ceiling and floor perfectly.
Barnes (Newcastle, £6.1m) ranks third in our PPM analysis with 27.4 projected points at 4.49 PPM. His differential status (just 5.6% overall ownership) offers league-climbing potential ahead of Newcastle's favourable fixture run. Though his 40% blank rate and CV of 0.74 indicate some volatility, his P90 ceiling of 10.8 points demonstrates explosive potential. Currently outperforming with 5.60 points per game this season, Barnes demonstrates that his value isn't just theoretical.
Groß (Brighton, £5.8m) combines elite-manager backing with exceptional current performance. The massive +42.0pt elite gap shows top managers recognise his quality, and his 9.40 points per game this season ranks him first among all budget options. Despite challenging fixtures ahead, our model still projects 25.9 points over six gameweeks at 4.46 PPM. His underlying numbers are excellent, with 0.66 NPxG+xA per 90, and his bonus point potential is unmatched at 1.80 per 90 from 33.2 BPS per 90.
Hall (Newcastle, £5.3m) completes our top five with 23.6 projected points at 4.45 PPM. Like his teammate Barnes, Hall benefits from Newcastle's favourable run starting with Coventry away. His defensive metrics are strong with 9.2 DefCon per 90, placing him well on the defenders chart. The combination of 6.20 points per game this season with a solid P20 floor of 2.4 points offers both current performance and consistency, though the slight negative elite gap (-2.4pt) suggests top managers aren't fully convinced.
| Player | Pos | Price | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | Total xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guéhi MCI | DEF | £6.0m | 6.1 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 23.8 |
| Barnes NEW | MID | £6.1m | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 23.2 |
| Groß BHA | MID | £5.8m | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 21.1 |
| Hall NEW | DEF | £5.3m | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 20.7 |
| Thomas COV | DEF | £4.0m | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 17.4 |
Action Plan
Our analysis reveals several clear strategies for maximising points per million in your FPL squad:
By strategically deploying these value picks, you can free up funds for premium assets while maintaining strong points production across your entire squad. The key is selecting the right combination of floor, ceiling, and fixtures to complement your team structure and risk tolerance.
- Target £4.0m enablers with actual returns: Thomas stands out as the ultimate budget enabler who also delivers points, with elite managers already taking notice. Davis offers a secondary option at the same price point with surprising attacking threat.
- Consider Newcastle's fixture run: With Barnes, Hall, Thiaw and Wissa all appearing in our gems list, Newcastle assets offer excellent value ahead of favourable fixtures. Barnes in particular combines differential status with both form and projection.
- Don't ignore elite wisdom: The significant elite gaps for Groß (+42.0pt), De Cuyper (+37.1pt), and Calafiori (+36.9pt) highlight players the most successful managers are backing heavily. Though their raw PPM rankings are slightly lower due to some challenging fixtures, their underlying numbers and current performance suggest sustainable returns.
- Look for overlooked value: Stach (2.5% owned) and Gonzalo (3.9% owned) offer excellent projected points at minimal ownership. Their reasonable consistency metrics and favourable upcoming fixtures present opportunities for managers seeking differential value.
- Balance boom with consistency: When selecting budget options, consider both ceiling (P90) and floor (P20). Guéhi exemplifies the ideal balance with both high projection and consistency, while players like Wissa offer high projections but significant risk with a P20 floor of just 0.8 points.
FPLScout
Guest Analyst
Written by the FPL King editorial network - tactical FPL analysis, captaincy edges, transfer strategy and fixture-led planning.
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